Democrats and their allies in the fake news media are hyping up a blue wave sweeping across America on Election Night.
But there is one factor they are overlooking.
And the bad news Chuck Schumer feared just dropped right on his head.
The real prize on Election Night is control of the U.S. Senate.
Democrats only need to flip five seats to win the House of Representatives.
And given the historical pattern of losses by the party in power, Republicans face a steep climb to maintain their majority.
Democrats need to win four GOP-held seats to win the Senate.
Republicans have all but conceded the race in North Carolina, leaving Alaska, Ohio, Kansas, Texas, Maine, and Michigan as the remaining battleground races.
CNN data analyst Harry Enten told host Sarah Snider that “Democrats likely need to win at least three of these in order to win control” of the Senate.
Real Clear Politics shows Democrats leading in all of these races within the margin of error, meaning they are all a statistical tie.
Enten explained, “That is why the Senate at this point is too close to call.”
The fact that Democrats haven’t established a statistically significant lead in these races is a “big siren warning sign for Democrats,” Enten went on to say, because in the past, polls have consistently undercounted Trump voters, leading to Republican election wins that the pollsters never saw coming.
Enten warned Democrats that “you’ve seen yourselves ahead before, and then Election Day the votes are cast and counted, and the Republicans come out ahead.”
A polling error of four points, similar to what’s taken place in the past, means Republicans would run the table in all the contested Senate races.
“If Republican candidates outperform the averages by 3.75 points,” Enten told viewers, ” it would mean that Republicans would easily maintain control of the U.S. House[Senate].”
“The bottom line is this: we have a few weeks to go left in this campaign,” and the “polling has been tight,” Enten continued.
“I think we’ve seen this story a little bit before — and that is why this Senate map is still way too close to call, Republicans very much in the ball game,” Enten concluded.
Enten wasn’t the only one warning Democrats that the polls could be wrong.
Barack Obama took this message to the donor class at a fundraiser in Virginia where he admitted the polls looked good, but that Democrats could still find themselves dejected on Election Night as polls missed the amount of Trump support in red states.
“All these races that are showing we’ve got a two- or three-point lead, or it’s a toss-up, we could end up losing all of them by two points. It’s within the margin of error,” Obama warned.
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