Ken Paxton is counting on a red Texas to send him to the Senate.
But Fox News’ own poll showed him trailing a Democrat by three points.
And a Democrat used that number to leave Sean Hannity stunned on live television.
As West Wing Daily reports:
Democrats need to win four Republican-held seats to claim the majority in the United States Senate.
Even though a Democrat hasn’t won statewide since 1988, the left continues to believe a blue Texas is right around the corner.
The latest polls are giving Democrats added hope that this is the year they break their losing streak, as Fox News’s most recent survey of the Texas Senate race shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton by three points.
Fox News (Beacon/Shaw) poll | 7/23-7/27 RV
Texas statewide races 2026
Texas Governor
🟥Greg Abbott 50% (incumbent)
🟦Gina Hinojosa 49%
——
US Senate
🟦James Talarico 51%
🟥Ken Paxton 48%Link to poll: https://t.co/vuWfPhBfz2 https://t.co/HDxeLhR7iH pic.twitter.com/yUzG4ftg4W
— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) July 30, 2026
This poll became a source of contention on Sean Hannity’s Fox News show when Hannity flat-out told former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio that he didn’t “believe” his network’s own polling data and thought it was garbage.
During the segment, Hannity wondered why de Blasio thought someone as woke and radical as Talarico could win in a red state that President Trump routed Kamala Harris by double digits in 2024.
“So, you think ‘Six-Gender Talarico,’ who believes God is non-binary, who believes biological men should play women’s sports, and believes that biological men should have access to abortion —” Hannity said before de Blasio cut him off to cite the Fox News poll showing Talarico in the lead.
“Did you read your own poll today where Talarico is beating Paxton?” de Blasio wondered.
That’s when Hannity dismissed his employer’s poll out of hand.
“Okay, I don’t believe it for two seconds,” Hannity replied. “Not for two.”
Hannity then cited the recent spate of prominent Democrats speaking out about the rise of socialism in their party and saying their vote could be up for grabs.
“When you lose [political strategist] James Carville, and [late-night host] Bill Maher, and you lose [CEO of Stagwell Inc] Mark Penn, who was just on, and [Sen.] John Fetterman [D-PA] and [former Sen.] Joe Manchin [I-WV], I’m telling you, it’s a canary in the coal mine,” Hannity declared.
De Blasio replied that he wasn’t worried and claimed young voters would pick up the slack.
“Nope,” de Blasio shot back. “Young voters are gonna change these elections. You’re gonna be surprised, and they’re gonna be with the Democrats.”
But if Democrats are counting on the youth vote to win Texas, they could be making a bad bet.
Young voters are the most unreliable voters.
And campaign professionals say that any coalition planning on the youth vote as their key to victory is one that is planning to fail.