The political environment for the midterm election is coming into focus.
There was bad news rolling in for the GOP.
And one startling new poll just caused Republicans to make this unthinkable choice.
President Trump’s political career has been marked by unmatched dominance over the Republican Party as Trump turned the GOP from the country club establishment vehicle it was during the Bush years to a working-class populist conservative coalition.
Republicans running for office knew that opposing Trump or his agenda was a death sentence.
But with over 40 days remaining until Election Day, cracks are appearing in the foundation.
Republican candidates in key Senate battleground races are breaking with Trump over the war with Iran.
The Iran war resulted in diesel fuel prices soaring to over $6 a gallon, and regular gas prices rocketed to more than $4 a gallon.
Ashley Hinson is running for Senate in a state Trump won easily three times, most recently by 13 points in 2024.
Hinson was the first GOP Senate candidate to call for an end to the war with Iran.
“Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn’t have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran. We need to use every option at our disposal to provide some relief from high prices,” Hinson wrote on social media.
Hinson then called for a series of steps to lower gas prices for Americans.
“That includes suspending the gas tax, pausing diesel exports, unleashing E-15 everywhere we can, reinstating the $1/gallon biodiesel tax credit, and creating a diesel relief program to help our farmers and truckers being crushed by the high costs,” Hinson added.
Hinson also refused to appear at a campaign event with Vice President JD Vance.
The polling out of Iowa told the story about why Hinson is distancing herself from the war.
Iowa wasn’t initially thought of as a Senate battleground.
But polls show Hinson trailing her Democrat opponent Josh Turek.
IOWA POLL – Senate
🟦 Josh Turek: 50%
🟥 Ashley Hinson: 42%@maristpoll (A) | 9/17-20 | n=1,050https://t.co/zdT0mz3eaC pic.twitter.com/opLuFAe9yC— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 22, 2026
In Michigan, Republican Mike Rogers is also demanding an end to the war.
“The war in Iran needs to end to bring costs down — but Michigan families can’t afford to wait,” Rogers said in a video posted to social media.
The war in Iran needs to end to bring costs down — but Michigan families can’t afford to wait.
Here’s what we can do now: place a temporary embargo on Diesel exports. American energy should provide relief to American families first. pic.twitter.com/15IS1tjnJS
— Mike Rogers (@MikeRogersForMI) September 21, 2026
Michigan is Republicans’ top pickup opportunity owing to Democrats nominating radical socialist Islamist Abdul El-Sayed.
But El-Sayed has maintained a narrow polling edge in a state Republicans haven’t won a Senate race in since 1994.
Rogers and Hinson breaking with Trump on Iran would have been unimaginable at the war’s outset.
With the conflict in its seventh month, Republicans are hoping Trump wraps it up in victory as soon as possible to help get gas prices down.
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